Earth is outside most likely life region of galaxy

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Earth is outside most likely life region of galaxy

Postby southwestforests on Mon 18 Jan 2021 21:27

Hmm. Okay, so what does it mean when the only known occurrence of a thing is not within the most likely range of parameters for it to occur?

Computer Model Predicts When and Where Extraterrestrial Life Is Most Likely to Emerge in Our Galaxy (Spoiler: It's Not Here)
Earth sits outside the region of the Milky Way where life is most likely to have arisen, say astronomers.
The Physics arXiv Blog December 29, 2020 5:00 PM

https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sc ... ost-likely

But there is another set of factors that also determine the likelihood of life and these have been less well investigated. Back in 1983, the Soviet astronomers Leonid Marochnik and Lev Mukhin suggested that technological civilizations might be most likely to emerge in a “belt of life” around the center of our galaxy.

Other astronomers have since toyed with the idea of a “galactic habitable zone” where conditions are ripe for the emergence of life. This region is essentially a donut-shaped zone around the center of the galaxy, where life appears more likely to emerge. But just how this likelihood changes over time has yet to be explored.

Now that changes, thanks to the work of Jonathan Jiang at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena working with a couple of colleagues. This team has created a three-dimensional model of the galaxy that simulates the likelihood that life might emerge on Earth-like planets and suggests regions of the galaxy where life seems most likely to have arisen.
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Re: Earth is outside most likely life region of galaxy

Postby krenshala on Sat 23 Jan 2021 14:21

To my mind, either the model is flawed, or the inputs to the model have issues (most likely due to insufficient data being available to us). A good enough model, with the correct/accurate data inputs should always have results that match reality (within whatever its error bars are) when given starting parameters that match reality.
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